Industry News

Tonight all purse to unveil the blockbuster data relations

Core tip: since December 2015, the federal reserve to open after raising interest rates for the first time in 10 years, once again raising interest rates expected will never stop, especially since 2016.

Qq__20151201131330thumb_head.thumb_head

Yesterday (September 1), the global capital market is very quiet, but this kind of quiet let a person have a kind of "what is the cloud horizontal Qin Linggu, snow on the blue pass horse back" of fear.


WeChat ID: nbdnews) economic daily news (reporter noticed, since December 2015, the federal reserve to open after raising interest rates for the first time in 10 years, once again raising interest rates expected will never stop, especially since 2016. Every time when people think the fed is likely to raise interest rates, the fed is "broken" for many times, let the parties could not find the north. At the moment, the us ADP employment population reached more than expected in August 177000, as a result, for the fed to raise interest rates expected in September renewed again.


So, this time the federal reserve is again "Wolf", and then you wish? I'm afraid I play a decisive role, is Beijing time today (September 2) night will release a big data.


The global market again


From the last time the fed to raise interest rates, have been almost nine months. Global experience many times during the fed shouted "Wolf coming" moment, did not see "the wolves".


September 20 ~ 21, 2016, the federal reserve's policy-setting meeting, it will open rate window. In the global industry in the doubts of the federal reserve to break out, the global multinational stocks showed great hesitated.

King gross debt to the fed's hesitant behavior baffled, he said:


The federal reserve and other central Banks "obsessed with low interest rates and negative interest rates," need to kick the habit.


Julius baer, Switzerland, in an interview with the media Asia head Matthews more think:


Increases in interest rates is a verbal games, dove form whole members of the fed, was reluctant to raise interest rates, but frequently tend to raise interest rates of comments, purpose is to suppress an asset bubble.


In a rush and don't understand the industry, investors around the world is waiting for an important influence on whether the fed raising interest rates will be data - August non-farm payrolls data.


WeChat ID: nbdnews) economic daily news (reporter noticed, the three major U.S. stock indexes after seven to new highs in early August this year, in the middle of August to the end of August, the three major stock indexes have been in the stage of high consolidation. Our class A shares in the near future also always cross pattern of indecision.

Bring on September 1, the global stock market go up drop to half and half. Image: tongda letter August non-farm data to decide when to raise interest rates


As mentioned above, the Beijing standard time on September 2 (Friday) at 20 and 30 points, the United States department of labor announced the United States on September non-farm payrolls report, the data is widely considered to have an important influence on the judgment of the whether the fed raising interest rates this month.


So much attention in the market to the non-farm payrolls data this month, because previously known as "little non-farm" American ADP employment data reached more than expected in August 177000.


In general, the data better than expected, are thought to have said the U.S. economy will go well. WeChat ID: nbdnews) economic daily news (reporter noticed that the AD data is released by ADP, a big American human resource service company in the number of the private sector jobs each month, while the non-farm payrolls data mainly reflects the non-agricultural population (including the private sector and public sector) employment development and growth. Usually, if the ADP employment data preference, the non-farm payrolls data may also be preference.

Is the "small non-farm" American ADP employment data reached more than expected in August 177000. Image: today's American website


But the reporter also noticed that the data released on the eve of the us investment bank and economists generally expected August non-farm data about the number of 180000 new, or will be lower than the average growth in year 186000. And expectations of August also substantially below this year in June, July is as high as 273000 new number two months on average.


He Aberdeen asset management companies in the United States investment managers, therefore, Luke bartholomew thinks, released on September non-farm data is not enough to support the fed to raise interest rates this month.


Is the key range of 150000 ~ 200000


In many American industry point of view, whether the fed to raise interest rates in September non-farm data are key to whether can reach a critical value - 200000.


"Because of the U.S. inflation still fails to reach the goal of the fed, so August non-farm payrolls data to more than 250000 people to make the fed to consider cautiously raising interest rates," American independent macroeconomic research institute capital economics (CapitalEconomics) economist Paul ya shi said. Britain's barclays bank economist Robert Martin think the fed trigger non-agricultural data need not be so high, 200000 people could be.

In July, U.S. officials core CPI inflation rate was 0.8%, below the fed's target of 2%.


Griffin, chief economist at capital randy Anderson cooper, omega consulting company CEO Leon mann all agree with Robert Martin, think this rate is more than 200000, it is possible to support the fed to raise interest rates; If the value is less than 150000, the fed could raise rates window until December this year.